As soon as someone says the word ‘predict’, I feel humored- as though I’m expecting to be entertained by a psychic or other medium. When I hear someone say the word ‘predict’ in a more serious tone, I suddenly think, ‘let’s go to Vegas and test this out… if you’re serious, that is’.

Vegas is probably the best proving ground for any kind of predictive analysis. The odds DO work out, just as published by the casinos. Of course, those odds occur over a time frame and do not exist in a vacuum. Casinos understand that they will lose and win money in the short run, but over time the odds will trend toward expected values- all they have to do is keep enough cash on hand to ensure they have the time for the predictions to pay off.

And there’s the rub in predictive analytics. Sure, you can ballpark the possibility of an idea/correlation/etc., but does your business have the resources and luck for it to pan out as predicted? Beta was a good idea, Dewey made the headlines for beating Truman in the Presidential election, but no one ever put a better phrase to sure plans than Mike Tyson who said, “Everyone has a plan ’till they get punched in the mouth.”

Big Data looks like snake oil, smells like snake oil and tastes like snake oil. YMMV.

HOW DID YOU KNOW?

Wait, that’s not right…I need a puppy. Yeah, a puppy. With green eyes. #dontbotherasking

RG,

I find your comment fascinating and would like to subscribe to your newsletter.

I also think you and I agree more than you may think. You are saying that predictive analysis is about relatives, not absolutes, and that ultimately you can’t predict the future for any one specific item but you *may* be able to guess accurately about a group of items.

I can buy that. Otherwise they wouldn’t put the basil by the tomatoes.

Thanks for the feedback. I find myself being more drawn into data analysis these days (and enjoying it).

Tom